DEFEND YOUR MOVES 2017 WEEK 3!!!
OK, so another week of shit NFL matchups is in the books. Looks like next week should be more fun, we'll talk about that Thursday. Right now its time for a new DYM segment:
One of the most painful moments any fantasy owner can have is The Fantasy Revenge Game. That’s when one of your favorite fantasy players is on someone else’s team and they go off on your ass just for old time’s sake. That’s what DYM.com faced this week: My TE is Delanie Walker. Walker was a guy who I owned in 2013 and 2014. In ’14 I made a last minute switch to get him in to my Super Bowl lineup and he got me just enough to pull out a 2pt victory. I owe that SESB title to him and he’ll always be my favorite fantasy TE. But I had to play against My TE’s new team using some young TE I barely even know. DW extracted his revenge this week to the tune of 14.2 points including a RUSHING TD.
Everybody that has played fantasy football for a few years has certain players who are “their guys.” Maybe they were on your first team, maybe they were on your best team, maybe the guy keeps falling to you in every draft. One way or another certain guys stick with us and they become a part of our fantasy identity.
I want you guys to be ready just so you don’t have to have your hearts broken like I did. So here’s the guys that I always feel like are each of Your Guys. If I missed anybody, or you feel like somebody is Your Guy let us know in the comments!!!
Most of my other guys are WRs who I discovered in their rookie years. I am a proud three-time Torrey Smith owner, he was a member of our first 3 Special Ed teams. I’m really glad to see him on the Eagles now and BACK on the fantasy radar. In 2013 I picked up Keenan Allen, he’s My Guy. Been waiting a long time to get him back in the building. And obviously Amari Cooper is My Guy too, Chris is going to get sweet sweet revenge on us next week.
Doug’s guys are very well known to DYM readers: He is a 3 time Doug Baldwin owner, a 3 time Gronk owner and I’ve always felt like Demarco Murray was His Guy too. But Doug really needs to watch out for his matchup with former team-name-sake QB Russell Wilson. Russell relishes the fantasy revenge game like none other. He used to be My QB until he joined Doug’s team and defeated me in the SESB. He could seek revenge again in Week 5.
The all-time Dave guy is definitely Ryan Mathews. Dave loved That Guy, but he never revenged anybody. Dave is also a three time Frank Gore owner, that might be Dave’s favorite current player. I still feel like Mark Ingram is Dave’s guy too. I think I traded Ingram to Dave once and he liked him more than me. I shoulda started him this week.
Rob’s only been in the league one year, so we don’t know all his tendencies yet. One thing we know for sure is CJ Anderson is definitely His Guy. I also feel like Jamis Winston is His Guy, just cause he hasn’t started for any other Special Ed team. He’ll have to face Jamis in weeks 4 AND 13.
Matt is only a one-time Odell Beckham Jr owner but he picked up OBJ during his rookie year and took the kid all the way to the DYM AWARDS, so that’ll always be Matt’s Guy. He comes back to town for a week 6 Revenge matchup. Matt also owned Calvin Johnson the last two years of his career, so I’ll always remember him as a member of the Polk High Panthers.
Believe it or not TY Hilton used to be good, back in those days Abby owned him 3 times. He lives forever in the hearts of the Bitchslapped. Abby also owned Matt Ryan in two of his best career years, but now that she’s got Brady on the squad she’s moved on. Brady is Her QB now.
Mike is another shameless homer, but he represents the Steelers, as well as any player who hails from Western PA. Mike is a three time Big Ben owner and two-time Heath Miller owner. His WR is would-be Nittany Lion QB Terrelle Pryor. Penn State fans all still love Pryor from when he was in high school. Mike’s matchups with Rob in weeks 4 and 13 will be DOUBLE REVENGE, definitely AGOTW material.
Paul’s perennial WR was Victor Cruz. I was really surprised when he offered me Cruz in a trade last year. That’s Your Guy! But ever since the rookie explosion of 2012 I’ve always associated Paul’s teams with the Redskins. RGIII and Alfred Morris are Paul’s Super Bowl Guys forever. But the association was really set in stone in my mind when Paul went and got Matt Jones in 2014. Samaje Perine might look to get revenge in Alf and Matt Jones’ memory in week 8.
Aaron Rodgers is Chris’s Guy from way back. Chris has had the #1 overall pick 3 times and picked Rodgers twice. Dave has another chance at a revenge game win over the Commish in week 8. But His #1 Packer is definitely Randall Cobb. Chris is a four time Cobb owner and I still see a little twinkle in his eye anytime I mention his name. Chris is also a two-time Alshon Jeffery owner, and it’s no mistake that he reached way up in the draft to get the New Alshon, Devante Parker.
Well, Ertz's Guy is Ertz. Jeff might go undefeated this year with no Revenge Games looming.
Matt Harmon: DEFEND YOUR BRAND!!!
So, I picked up Rashard Higgins yesterday. “Who?” you say.
Rashard Higgins was a draft prospect I read about last summer, who didn’t do much last year as an NFL player. But more specifically, Rashard Higgins was once the favorite WR prospect of a guy who was once my favorite fantasy writer. This Sunday in Indianapolis, both of those titles will either be victoriously reclaimed or shamefully abandoned FOREVER.
As you all know, last season was an historically abysmal showing for yours truly and it all started with an absolutely horrendous draft. So this year I made some tweaks to my pre-draft process, including cutting out a number of the fantasy podcasts and blogs that had steered me wrong last year. One of the outlets I don’t fuck with anymore is NFL Network’s NFL Fantasy Live. There’s a lot of different people on that show that seem to disagree with each other. But the weird thing is that they’re ALL wrong so often. It turns out there are more different ways to fuck up a fantasy team than ways to not fuck one up, and NFL Network has all of those bases covered.
One particular NFL idiot who I used to like is Matt Harmon. He’s a newer guy on the NFL Network shows and still maintains his own site at thebackyardbanter.com. The flagship of his brand is an analytic tool called “RECEPTION PERCEPTION”. He charts every route a receiver runs and the coverage he faces, and calculates success rates for every player in a variety of situations. He claims that these rates are highly predictive of fantasy success.
I read a lot of his stuff and allowed myself to be talked into a whole bunch of these WRs. Allen Robinson, Josh Gordon, Donte Moncrief, Travis Benjamin and Will Fuller all played significant roles in making a shambles of my fantasy season, and all were above average players by the Reception Perception metrics. The only reason this guy hasn’t yet been cut out of my life completely, along with the rest of NFL Fantasy Live, is because I respect the fact that he has a process and he trusts it. There are some clear short-comings to Reception Perception as an analysis tool but I appreciate that Harmon remains aware of those short-comings and has the ability to critique his own work. Case in point being the article linked above:
“The goal of the methodology is to cut through outside factors, and isolate the player alone to best discern just who they are as an individual performer. That’s why there is no adjusting for competition, what passer they play with, what system they exist in and certainly why there will never be a cumulative overall Reception Perception grade.”
The primary fault in Reception Perception is its singular focus on route-running against coverage. Very particular aspects of the game are analyzed very acutely, but there are both extrinsic factors in a particular game (like level of competition) and intrinsic factors in particular players (like combine measurables) that Reception Perception willfully ignores because, the theory is, these things don’t matter as much as we like to think. It’s a bold and spicy brand and I respect that about it.
Overall I’d say I got a much better lineup by ignoring Harmon than I did by following him and though my WR1 is not a Harmon favorite, he still stinks, so we’re once again open to suggestion. But we just want everybody to know that these guys are on thin ice. Higgins surely knows that if he fucks up next week, he can be right back on the practice squad by October. But this is the last chance for Harmon too. I swear, I will unfollow this guy and never look back.
THEY SAY THIS IS A BIG RICH TOWN
We’re into Season 4 of Power now, and things don’t look good for Ghost. He’s in jail, Julio and Dre are selling drugs in his club, Turtle wants him to flip on Tommy and finally the real antagonist of the whole show is back in town and for once the biggest problem in his life might not be Angela.
This show is just delightfully written. Ghost is the “main” character but from day one he’s made such awful choices and been so generally unlikeable that it’s hard not to cheer for the bad guys sometimes. So like half way through season 3 you start to see that 50 Cent is actually mad smart, and you meet his cousin named JukeBox and she’s the BEST, maybe you start thinking you don’t want Ghost to win. But then 50 mugs an 80 year old woman in her apartment, and you’re like “oh yea he’s the bad guy”.
Power is really really dumb sometimes, but it’s fun to watch in part because there are some great characters that aren’t Ghost and Angela. So without further to do, DYM is proud to present:
POWER POWER RANKINGS: SEASON 4
3: The Asian prosecutor that doesn’t like Turtle
5: 50 cent
7: That old white guy in jail
7: Father Jim Norton
8: La La Anthony
Also, Ghost and Tasha apparently still have 3 kids. We hadn’t seen that baby for 3 years until they went to visit Ghost in jail.
HAVE A GREAT WEEK EVERYBODY!!!