Total Moves This Week: 8
DUMPSTER DIVER OF THE WEEK: None
The moves volume is down a bit this week. That’s normal for week 3, don’t feel bad.
After week 3, we’ve got a better idea of who’s really good, and who really has the good roles in the NFL; most of the early break-out players have been identified and reckoned with. Bye weeks haven’t really hit yet, and trades don’t usually go down in this league until after week 4. So many fantasy people are settling in to their teams looking down the road a bit. So DYM is here to shake your banana trees. This is no time to get comfortable because the NFL is a goddamn mess, and Special Ed has parity!
POWER RANKING TIME!!!!
When we did Power Rankings this time last year, there were 25% more Elite Super Star players than there are now and there were also more empirically start-able players overall. But what is much more surprising is how evenly the good players are distributed in Special Ed. For the first time EVER no team in Special Ed has more than 6 starting-caliber players on their roster AND no team has fewer than 4. This is shaping up to be one of the most competitive seasons in Special Ed History.
There is no room for error this season, as only the thinnest of margins separates the league’s best teams from the worst. 1.07 is a VERY low score for a #1 team. 1.00 is an adequate team, usually good for about 5th place. But 0.64 not bad for last place, that score is usually more like 8th. The reason for this is because so many real life NFL players suck right now. There are 70 starting roster spots in Special Ed every week. This week, we have identified 52 players as a Legit Starter or better. That means EVERY team will start a scrub (or scrubs!) this week. With such thin margins, the power rankings this week are not so much a predictive tool for this week’s match-ups but more of a warning to the entire league: EVERYONE’S TEAM SUCKS!!!!
Let’s break it down:
Now more than ever, there is no reason for any team to carry two QBs in this league. There are 2 Superstar QBs and only 4 others who are reliably legit starters. Wentz and Alex Smith have actually been just as consistent as the Elite Superstars, but remain unowned. Opportunity abounds for those with roster flexibility.
TOM BRADY, AARON RODGERS
BREES, RYAN, STAFFORD*, RUSSELL*
While the dearth of quality NFL QBs has been discussed widely in the NFL-media-sphere, the TE availability is actually far worse. We have identified only 1 Elite TE and only 3 other reasonably consistent starters through three games, and one of them is Jason Witten, so.
Kelce, Ertz, Witten*
WRs and RBs
These next lists might seem controversial, but for the most part they are based on the numbers and the numbers do not lie. The exceptions are Tyreek Hill and Chris Thompson. Both are top 5 at their position but I think we are all kinda like “nah.” No one thinks they’re elite, not buyin it. It’s not like you can really trust them like they’re True Elite Superstars. So they won’t be considered superstars here unless they remain in the top 5 much later in the season. Excluding them, the 2 RBs we’ve designated as the Elite Superstars of Week 4 are scoring at least 8 pts per game more than the #3 RB, and Elite WRs lead by at least 4 pts per game. So the tiers are difficult to argue against for this week. But, this does leave the Legit Starter category a bit crowded so we tweaked our grading system slightly to differentiate the players in the tier:
Some perennial all-pros like Odell, LeVeon and LeSean have had like maybe one good game, but we all expect them to break out. Those players along with some other high upside fellas are indicated below as ^ were scored as 1.5 in the table above.
Other Players like Larry Fitzgerald and Sammy Watkins have had like maybe one good game and they might not have another one for a few weeks at least. Those are indicated as * and were scored .5 (Witten, Stafford, and Russell are also scored .5)
RB Legit Starters:
BELL^, DAVONTA^, HYDE^, TY MONTGOMERY^, FOURNETTE^, DALVIN COOK^, MCCAFFERY, CJA, MELVIN, CHRIS THOMPSON, DEMARCO, HOWARD, TARIK COHEN, ZEKE, TEVIN*, AJAYI*
ANTONIO BROWN, JORDY, DIGGS
WR Legit Starters:
JULIO^, EVANS^, AJ GREEN^, COOKS^, ODELL^, HILL, TATE, HOPKINS, D THOMAS, DEZ, PIERRE, PARKER, DOUG, CRABTREE, MIKE TOM, KEENAN, LARRY*, EMMAUEL*, WATKINS*
AMERICAS GAME OF THE WEEK
BitchSlapped vs ¡Que Lástima!
#1 vs #3 in the Power Rankings and the Standings!!!!
It’s Special Ed’s Teams of Destiny facing off in Week 4!!!!
Before last year Bitchslapped had never finished over .500 in Special Ed, and Ertz had only done so once in the 10-team era. But 2016 was a year of redemption for both teams, Abby missed the playoffs by a tie-break and Ertz completed a 3rd place finish. This year they have sought to build on that success and drafted top tier teams that are very evenly matched. This is matchup has the highest projected score this week. Congrats, you guys. You made it!
Both have very good QBs with tough matchups. Brady faces Carolina but is at home. Brees is known to be not as good on the road. This week he travels to jolly merry ole England for an early morning game. Advantage: Abby
Both have Elite Superstar WRs who will hope to cover up for subpar WR2s. The advantage again goes to Abby with that garbage receiver Crabtree banged up. Abby has Alshon in a tasty matchup at the Clippers and Willie Snead lurking on the bench.
The RB advantage goes to Ertz. Demarco looks motivated by everybody talking about Derrick henry taking his job. Carlos Hyde could rise to elite status with a big game on the road against a tough Arizona D.
TE also goes to QL. Zach Ertz is balling this year, and GB tight end is always hit or miss.
Somehow ¡Que Lástima! Only has 2 players going at 1pm Sunday, and they’re both Titans. So, that’s weird.
Bitchslapped - 119.10
¡Que Lástima! – 118.99
AGOTW Prediction record: 1-2
SPECIAL ED MATCHUP PREVIEWS
DYM.com vs Baldwins
Kareem Hunt is extra extra Elite. I shoulda counted him as 2.5 in Power Rank metrics.
Saquon’s Heiman vs Golden Richards
Tough choices here for the Commish, once again. I have Tarik Cohen in FanDuel tonight. Fading Cobb tho. Just saying.
Polk High vs W-Word Walkers
Our Investigative reporting team did an AMAZING job scouting the Cincinnati press last week. Their findings were 100% accurate. Great Job. AJ Green is going to feast the rest of this year. There’s no other way Lazor gets to keep this job.
Randall Cumminghamm vs Team Meh
Both of these teams have been EXPOSED by Power Ranking analysis. Team Meh, at 0-3, is actually the 5th best team with a solid .93 score. RC on the other hand has managed 2 wins despite being the league’s 8th best team on paper.
HAVE A GREAT WEEK EVERYBODY!!!!