What's up Special Ed?
Super Bowl's coming up. That's cool.
No disrespec' to Rihanna but we're not super hyped for SB LVII, and it's mostly because the Bills aren't in it. It was way easier to get agnostically excited about postseason games when our team wasn't competitive. When the Bills sucked we would just switch gears after week 17 and become a bandwagon Ravens or Saints fan, but nowadays it's hard to not be jealous and spiteful of the teams that actually make it to the SB.
This past month we've spent a lotta time thinking about where the Bills' playoff loses fall in Bills Simmons' old "Levels of Losing"*, trying to cathartically contextualize the experience.
The entire Bills Mafia was pretty listless for a week or so after the Bengals game. Fortunately, after the Bengals lost to KC, "NFL is rigged" became a trending twitter topic for the first week of February. That made us feel a lot better. We were really starting to think maybe the '22 Bills weren't actually that good, and we were stupid for not acknowledging their flaws earlier. But the great thing about conspiracy theories is they absolve the audience of all responsibility for their circumstances.
Conspiracy theories are soothing. They tell you you're not wrong, they tell you there's nothing that could have been done differently because Great Unseen Forces control your reality.
Tomorrow night we're gonna wrap ourselves in that warm cozy blanket of conspiracy theory and bet it all on Mahomes to win MVP.
* - The 2021 Chiefs game was a "Gut Punch" and a "Sudden Death" game; this year the Bengals was a "This Can't Be Happening" game.
SUPER BOWL LVII PROP BETS!!!!!!!!!!
We're almost done with the fifth Dune book and this year's Super Bowl is gonna be played in THE DESERT so you know these props are all 100%-Guaranteed DYM-Certified LOCKS!!!
Usually we get at least one NBAxSuper Bowl prop in, but the NBA games this Sunday are pretty uninteresting (Grizzlies/Celtics and Pistons/Raptors) - and since World Cup betting is the only thing that made us any real money this year - we're going with Soccer props!!!
Manchester United goals>Gainwell recs (-115)
Eagles sacks>Man. U goals (-105)
Manchester United vs. Leeds kicks off at 9am eastern on Super Bowl Sunday. This will be the second half of a home-and-home series - they tied 2-2 at Manchester on Wednesday.
We're looking for ManU to score 2 or 3 goals in this one, which should be the sweet spot between Gainwell's 1.5 recs and the Eagles' 3.5 sacks.
Since Cristiano Ronaldo's departure from the club in December they've scored either 2 or 3 goals in 10 out of their last 11 games, and Leeds has not allowed more than 3 this year.
SUPER BOWL NONSENSE PROPS
Coin toss - Tails (+100)
Coin toss - Chiefs (+100)
Gatorade color - Clear (+750)
"Chiefs to win coin toss" will be an early test to see if this game is actually gonna be rigged.
If the Chiefs win the coin toss we'll probably double down on some Chief's bets in-game. If the Eagles win the toss we'll be a bit more cautious with the in-game betting.
First Score Field Goal (+170)
This is a classic Super Bowl lock. Nobody wants to go scoreless for too long in the big game. Most teams play a bit more conservative - and will "take the points" - early in the Super Bowl.
1st TD Jersey Number o11.5 (+105)
Kelce 1st TD (+700)
We got these cause we thought Kelce had the most total TDs this year of all Eagles and Chiefs players. But then we looked it up and it turns out Hurts had 13 rushing TDs and Kelce only had 12 receiving. Woops.
Hopefully it's rigged.
Mahomes MVP (+120)
Draftkings Special Chiefs Parlay (+450)
If you like Chiefs Moneyline (+105) then you're probably gonna want to get Mahomes MVP at +120 too.
Hurts o50.5 rushing (-115)
There were 8 total games this year where the Eagles allowed 20 points, or won by less than 4, or lost - in 7 of those games Jalen ran for more than 50 yds.
Eagles o12.5 1st Half (-125)
o24.5 total 1st Half (+100)
Eagles 1H ML + o24.5 1H (+260)
Both Philly and KC are first half teams, but especially Philly.
The Eagles and Chiefs are 1st and 2nd in the NFL this year in first half points at 18.2 and 15.5 respectively.
But while KC is only 3 points worse in the 2nd half (12.7; 4th in the NFL), Philly averages a middling 10.8 points in 2nd halves.
If this script holds we like Philly to win the first half and KC to come back win the game.
HAVE A GREAT SUPER BOWL EVERYBODY!!